The Midterm Elections, Tomorrow

According to FiveThrityEightPolitics, the likelihood that the Republicans will take control of the senate is over 75%.

For the Democrats, all the way down to the wire, the news isn’t good. At all. On the eve of the elections new reports came in suggesting that they may have the information on where James Foley, the journalist now famous due to his tragic beheading by members of ISIS, was, but did not attempt to use it until too late.

It has been like that all the way along, ever since election night, 2012, things have steadily gotten worse for them. In theatre we have both the comedies and the tragedies. In the comedies everybody lives, and everyone is happy. In tragedies everything goes wrong, and everybody dies. What started out as a huge Democrat Victory, a near comedy, with Obama pummeling his opponent and taking a second term, has ended out its two year run as a looming tragedy, with bad news on every hand, approval ratings through the floor and bad news through the roof, from broken websites to resigning cabinet members, one of whom was voted in contempt of congress.

There are 36 senate seats in play, and a number of them are a tossup. The Republicans are ten seats down, but would need to only gain six seats to flip the senate, while they already hold the house, and are not expected to lose it. While every one of the 435 house seats are up in the air, as it is every two years, most of them land repeatedly in the hands of the same party that threw them up.

Of course, while in some ways numbers can mean everything, this is politics, and numbers can also mean nothing. There is no certainty in this game. Anything can happen. The Republicans could gain ten seats, or lose ten. The rules do not preclude it.

Tomorrow the long campaign, which was the most expensive midterm campaign in history, will be over. We will know if Americans want the Democrats, or if they are ruing their decision of two years ago. Either way, the Democrats certainly did write a comedy. A comedy of errors.

Andrew C. Abbott

Halloween: 1517

Ridgecrest Conference Center, NC – It was All Saint’s Day Eve, or All Hallows Eve; 1517, in Wittenberg, Germany. The parishioners waiting outside of the cathedral were there to receive absolution of sins, and to see the collection of “relics” inside. There were many relics circulating at this time, from what was supposedly the basin that Pontius Pilate washed his hands in, to a piece of dirt that Adam was made from. To top this all off, there was in Rome, a set of steps that reportedly were the one’s Christ carried his cross down.

It is difficult to say exactly which ones were on display that day, but certainly with such things floating about, a place as prestigious as Wittenberg at that time would have hopefully had some good exhibits. It certainly would have been an educational field trip for the children of that time, to see the multiple skulls of John the Baptist, supposedly they even had his skull from childhood, as well as the one from when he was an adult…Whatever, explain that one.

At some point during the day one of the teachers at the town’s university walked through the crowd and pounded a piece of paper to the door of the church, where he also preached. It was not an uncommon thing to do, the church door was an accepted notice board for statements and events that people needed to know.

In the old black and white film Martin Luther, in this scene a parishioner goes to the door, but quickly returns to his seat, telling a friend that it is just “something in Latin.” But that something in Latin wasn’t just anything in Latin. Penned by Martin Luther, the 95 thesis would be called various things, including the piece of paper that knocked off the crown of the pope.

In them, Luther denounced Indulgences, relics, etc. The church at that time, a thing that often spread terror just by its very name, began from that day to crumble. And crumbling led to teetering, and teetering led to the eventual fall of the Holy Roman Empire. And soon after, the entire face of the planet  forever. The church is still there of course. Perhaps it always will be. But it is a much kinder institution. No more thumb screws if you don’t agree with them. No more racks and bloody horsemen chasing people down for anything that could be labeled “heresy.”

And of course, on the other side of the coin, the Reformation began. John Calvin was only seven or eight years old. John Knox was even younger. But the ideas that Martin Luther put forth that day, the idea that the church was not all, were, in their time, truly frightening, and horrifying to many, as evidenced by the scrambled replies by many other clerics.

The Reformation would last a long time, and change many things. By the time Luther’s spark had finished its work, the New World was established, the king’s had mostly fallen, and the world was finally growing up. Of course, Luther could not know everything that would happen as a result of his nailing 95 ideas to a door of a church in a language that most people of the time could not even read. But certainly he must have known that it was something big, something revolutionary. For Luther, and as it would turn out for many other people as well, October 31, 1517 shaped up to be a truly frightening Halloween.

Andrew C. Abbott

People Hate Congress

Las Cruces, NM – Recently I heard a report that an estimated 13% of Americans still are against interracial marriages. Which is supposedly roughly the same percentage that believe they were visited, at some point, by Extra Terrestrials. However, even more interesting is that, as of today, that is roughly the same percentage -depending on who does the polling-that also approve of congress. In other words, it’s rare to find someone who thinks congress is, over all, doing their job right. As rare, it seems, or perhaps even rarer, then ETs.

But, surprisingly, or perhaps not too surprisingly, (it all depends on what surprises you) there is not often a massive turnover in congress. (Take the elections in two weeks, no large turnover is expected in the house, and everyone is still guessing about the senate, despite the basement level approval ratings.) And when there is a sudden flip in control, it is usually more of a referendum on a president and his policy, or a party and its mistakes, than it is about the actual congressman.

For most Americans who actually know who their congressman or woman is, they usually tend to think that he or she is doing a fine job. People are opposed to pork barrel spending. But if it is earmarked for them, they don’t seem to mind. Americans tend to hate congress. But they love their congressperson.

That can make it hard then, to cut spending. Everyone wants it done in a general sort of way. But begin cutting, and someone is going to start screaming. “Cut the pork, just not mine.” As long as plenty of representatives figure out a way to “bring home the bacon,” there won’t be too much complaining from constituents. That is not all that like to change. Perhaps less likely than that someday we will finally have proven that there really are little green men from Mars who kidnap people from the Bermuda Triangle when they bored, and helped to build the pyramids for the fun of it.

Andrew C. Abbott

Out of Sight, Out Of It: Senator Pat Roberts

During the 2000 election, my brother Paul had heard about Al Gore, the man that was running against George Bush. In his not-yet-five-years-old mind, Paul imagined Gore, who was obviously a bad guy, in his world, since he ran against the good guys, as having horns. He was very, very surprised then, to see a picture of Gore in a suit, and without horns! In his words, his respect and image of Gore went up “a lot.”

Being seen is, in politics, really important. At least, if you want to seem like you’re not out of touch. Because if it looks to people like you are out it, you will be very soon out of office. And you may just have to remind the people every now and again that you do not, in fact, have horns.

As the Republicans try to regain the senate here in the midterm elections,  (they already hold the House of Representatives) they know that not only must they pick up at least six seats, they must also hold the ones they already have, which, in Kansas, a traditionally deeply Red State, may be a problem.

Besides the facts that he has served for seventeen years, he is now nearly eighty himself, there are other reasons why some young Kansans, (and even older ones) may feel that Orman, the Independent, who is Robert’s only competition in the race since the Democrats pulled their candidate due to lack of interest, is a better fit. The reason is that Robert’s doesn’t own a house in Kansas. He doesn’t even always go back there on his vacations.

He was once voted the funniest senator. But then, he stopped visiting his state. People said his rallies were more like wakes for the dead. He seemed, according to some, to really have no clue that all of a sudden, he was dropping in the polls, and dropping fast. And he wasn’t there, and he wasn’t visible.

Greg Orman was though. The man who will now say with which party he will caucus with in Washington if he wins. He began chasing Robert’s up in the polls, as “everything came up Orman.”

But the other part of the story of the importance of being visible is that now, that’s what Roberts is. He is back in Kansas, at last, with a new team, a new message, and new money. Quite a bit of it, in fact. The Republican National Committee is not risking losing this seat, and even Sara Palin showed up to show support.

It has helped. A lot. The race is competitive again. But the story is one of a man who was out of sight, and quickly went on the road to being out of it. He is in sight now, and once again in sight of reelection. He was once ten points ahead in the polls. Then he was below Orman. Now he is once again even. But that was a turnaround that never needed to be necessary.

It may very well be Pat Robert’s last election night, on November 4, whether he wins of not. He is getting old, and another six years in Washington may very well finish to the old senator’s long race. Until then he has to finish out one more campaign, while writing the textbook on what not to do.

Andrew C. Abbott