Monday, June 29, 2015

Rainbow Rising























All across our nation, in one week which began with gunfire in South Carolina and ended with Gay Pride celebrations from San Francisco to the White House, the Confederate Flags are falling and the rainbow ones are rising.
The Republican Party, the American conservatives, and established church doctrine in our nation all took a brutal beating at the same time, and indeed, it might be said that after a quarter century of fighting, now with gay marriage legal in all fifty states, Obamacare being upheld a second time as constitutional, and the Confederate Flag and indeed the Confederacy itself now no longer being looked upon at least with indulgence as the “Lost Cause” but rather the “Bad Cause” ultra-conservative America has lost their war with the liberals.
The responses from conservatives across the nation vary widely. Some have thrown up the white flag and laid down their arms. Others have ran and hidden in their closets, heads between their legs. And still others, reminiscent of soldiers who believe their cause is just and refuse to surrender their ground, have stuck to their guns, even though they know it will end in their own oblivion.
The reasons the conservatives lost are many and varied, and for many decades historians will debate about why it happened. But I believe it was a fatal of flaw, not of strategy, but in the lack of having one. For years conservatives were the majority in this country, and like most majorities, they were complacent.
Unlike the Gay Pride groups and the far left liberals, conservatives had no plan other than to keep on believing what they believed. The liberals however, had a plan on how to make what they believed into law.
At first it was almost laughable, a little army of leftists against the big and bad conservatives, the GOP, the churches, even mainstream authors, magazines, and pundits. But it was a fight of numbers vs. people who had a plan. And the ones with the numbers, reminiscent of when the Babylonians fought Alexander the Great and were outflanked and routed.
It’s been coming for a long the time, and anybody who could cast their eyes to the horizon could have seen the clouds gathering above the Right side of America, and the rainbows rising in the sky. But there was denial among the conservatives, and then there was despair, and now they are surrendering.
Across our country, in just a few years, and quicker than perhaps anyone could have predicted, the national pendulum has swung out of the right’s grasp and at least tentatively, if not yet firmly, into the hands of the left.
For conservatives, they have few options now, but they do have some. The Iron Chancellor, the one who once nearly united all of Germany under his power once said that a generation that takes a blow is followed by a generation that gives one. One of the conservative options is to start again from the beginning, until they can again land a blow.
While the far right establishment has been thrown back on its heels, and while they have lost this war, they can always starts another, or if they don’t, someone on the left almost certainly will, and the conservatives will be sure to respond
And also, don’t expect the pockets of resistance to go quietly. The Ted Cruzes and Franklin Grahms aren’t dead, and they won’t stop kicking for a quite a while. While the new generation of conservatives will most likely be wary of fighting battles their fathers lost, they will have other things to do. And when they mount their battlements to fight, they had better be sure they have a better strategy and better arguments than the last generation, or their cities will fall as well.
For a while yet, we might not feel the full magnitude of the earthquake that just shook all of us. Indeed, a conservative might actually win the White House in 2016. That might sound preposterous to some, seeing as how the conservatives can't win on Twitter or in the Supreme Court these days, but there is still a Christian South, smaller than it used to be, but still there. And there are still conservatives strewn all throughout the nation, and they are mad, they are really mad.
One is reminded of President LBJ’s words right after his party, with much hard work and years of fighting, passed the Civil Rights Act. He said that the Democrats may have won, but they had cost themselves the South, and by extension almost virtually denied themselves the White House, for a generation. Obama, the Supreme Court, and the fall of the Southern Flag, may have just conspired to cost them it for still another one.
But that’s all speculation, and still in the future. For now, the referee has counted to ten; the time has run out on the clock. And the conservatives have lost.
Andrew C. Abbott

Thursday, June 25, 2015

Bobby Jindal: Don't Even Bother

Bobby Jindal


In Physics there is a basic principle known as the Pauli Exclusion Principle, named after physicist Wolfgang Pauli who invented it. It states that no two bodies can inhabit the same space at the same time. It is the political version of that same rule (which can be much less ridged) which will nonetheless likely be the death knell of Bobby Jindal’s hopes for the Republican Nomination.
He announced yesterday, however, that he is indeed running for the GOP Nomination, while he was in Baltimore.
Louisiana’s current 44 year old Governor, Jindal, an American born son of Indian immigrants who is a former Hindu, although he converted to Catholicism in his teen years, has plenty of problems. Although I see him as an engaging and humorous speaker, (he likes to joke that as an Indian-American, he can’t laugh at himself as that would be racist) many have feel that he often comes across as restrained, or stressing too hard.
This, and the fact that his state of Louisiana, of which he is two time governor, is not exactly doing the best, have conspired together, along with other factors to bring Jindal, a former congressman, where he was elected at the age of 32, down to dead last in the nomination race, running in fifteenth place, at 1%.
Jindal has no base, and the reasons are pretty obvious.
Jindal’s problem is that he has no group of voters which are his. He has been squeezed out of every spot that he would like to fill, because somebody else is already there. There are plenty of conservatives in the race, so the fact that Jindal is far right won’t help him. The young brand is already filled by Cruz, Paul, and Rubio. The ethnic slot is filled by Carson, Rubio, and Cruz, and the Catholic opening is filled by Jeb Bush, Rubio, etc. etc.
Jindal might last a while, but probably not too long. And it’s almost unconceivable that he could ever pull out a win. The reason is the field is simply way too overcrowded, but even were it not, Jindal lacks the charisma of some of the more popular candidates, as well as their credentials.
At another time, in a parallel universe, Jindal might have won. But we are talking about this universe, in this time. And not only do I see no possibility of Bobby Jindal winning the presidency of the United States, I don’t really understand why he’s running.
Andrew C. Abbott

Tuesday, June 23, 2015

Playing the Red Team with Ted Cruz




Atlanta, GA- Texas Senator Ted Cruz has many problems.
Ted Cruz is not near the front of the large 2016 presidential field of the GOP. Ted Cruz is not raising as much money as the likes of Jeb Bush. Tec Cruz does not have the stunning popularity among young people that Rand Paul has, he does not even have the Latino support that the only other Latino in the race besides himself, Marco Rubio, seems to be gathering. Ted Cruz is looked upon by many as divisive, and he isn’t winning any polls.
But perhaps Cruz’s main problem is that he is viewed by many as divisive. Not only are people not backing him, they are actually opposing him. Isidewith.com claims 74% of Americans would not vote for Cruz.  On RealClearPolitics.com this morning, Cruz is running in seventh, behind Ben Carson and Scott Walker, a governor who hasn’t even announced he is running.
The only people Cruz is doing better than are the likes of Donald Trump, (mercifully) and Rick Perry, the gaffe loaded governor of Texas who only began his campaign recently. Below him also is Carly Fiorina, who may not even make it some of the debates, and Bobby Jindal, who hasn't even announced. Cruz is the last wrung on the serious candidate ladder at the moment.
But there may be some hope for Cruz in the fact that some opponents will definitely drop out before this is over, and he strikes me as the kind of guy who won’t do that.
By the numbers, while Cruz is down he is definitely not out. He will make it easily to the FOX and CNN debates, although he’s not likely to be in the center of the stage.
The one thing that may help Cruz is the very fact that he is down now. People love to hate the front runner. Look at the 2011-12 primary run. First Perry was up, and then Gingrich, even Rick Santorum and Herman Cain had surges. But for all that Mitt Romney stayed beneath the radar, rising slowly, not the frontrunner, so nobody was loading it on him. And by the time he became the definite frontrunner, there was nobody left to load it on.
But you can only do that if, like Romney, you know how to not open your mouth and stick your feet in it, (at least not too often), and you are able to build a wide-ranging coalition within the party. That sort of thing seems to be lacking.
So, suggestions for Ted Cruz: don’t make it all or nothing right now, and try to appeal to the Latino vote. And above all keep your mouth closed. Nothing could hurt you later like saying something stupid now. If all else fails, just go back to the senate, and behave yourself. Your time may come again.
Andrew C. Abbott

Saturday, June 20, 2015

Please Don't Laugh, It's Donald


Donald


Atlanta, GA – Donald Trump recently said “I am running for president!” And, predictably, everybody is smirking. We shouldn’t be.
A couple of years ago, at a Christian Summer Camp in Wisconsin, a group of us were sitting round at night talking about a strange subject somebody had brought up: Who is the most annoying and laughable American National Figure?
Although I gave my vote to Alex Jones, and somebody said Rush Limbaugh, (I disagreed strongly) the overwhelming consensus was that the person who took the prize by a long shot was Donald Trump. Only one girl in a far corner of the room backed up Trump.
I must confess I never thought he would run. And I always hoped he wouldn’t. Politics is a serious business, and the guy who ran Celebrity Apprentice, has hair that has become a national joke, and has a famous ego taller than the Statue of Liberty really isn’t the sort of person you want joining an already overcrowded Republican Field.
But while it is true, Trump has no chance of winning outside of something more unforeseen happening than an attack from Godzilla on Atlanta, don’t laugh. Really, don’t laugh. Trump won’t win, but he could do a whole lot of damage.
Donald Trump is the kind of guy the media loves to cover. He’s has a massive mouth, and when he opens it, headlines are created. And he doesn’t need anybody’s money, so he doesn’t care what anybody else says. So while a nomination race should be a serious and rational thing, (although they often aren’t) The Donald could make things even worse than usual by opening his big mouth, putting both his feet and hands into it, and causing even more turmoil among the already disturbed GOP.
And then there is that little matter of independent or left leaning voters. The Grand Old Party need em’, they won’t get em’ if Trump makes our whole party look dumb, or if he just turns off everyone by screaming nonsense.
And one last thing. If Trump does well in the primary which he won’t win, he just might find he enjoys his favorite pastime of self-promotion so much that he runs on a third party ticket.
Someone with Donald’s ego and Trump’s power is not the sort of person we should make fun of too much. Its’ easy, and yes, I know it’s fun. There is already an internet meme out with an image of him, saying “We shall overcomb.” But we should avoid laughing at him like we avoid chocolate. It’s good for our taste buds, but not our waist lines. And if we do have to eat, (and sometimes we do) we should eat it in a back room, not our in public. Because if Trump’s ego is hurt, if he finally realizes what most people think of him, then he might just run on a third party ticket.
Anybody remember the last time a billionaire did that? Ross Perot? He cost George Bush the Presidency, and the Republicans the White House, in 1992. And while Trump, who is currently at about 5% support, does not have enough dedicated supporters to give him the oval office, (although, tellingly, he has enough to make it into the FOX Debates) there just might be enough people in far corners of rooms all across America to help Trump to enough votes that he cuts the GOP’s tenuous numbers down so far they don’t win.
So please don’t laugh, its Donald, and he just rocked our world.

Andrew C. Abbott