Tuesday, January 26, 2016

Battle Iowa

Atlanta, GA – In six days, it will all go down. In Iowa, at over a thousand locations, the fights will break out. Politely called caucuses, they are no more than mad scrambles and desperate struggles for votes among the candidates.
Trump, who was in the state over the weekend, is comfortably in first place, and has left to campaign in others. Some sources on the ground tell that while Trump’s supporters are many, they have never been involved in these glorified fist fights before, and it may hurt them that they cannot simply call everyone a “loser” and walk out with a win. Trump has been calling on his people, saying that if their wife dies, if their husband dies, they still need to go out and caucus.
Ted Cruz is in this state to win it. He consistently has downplayed expectations, saying that he will do well but does not need to win. However, he is barnstorming the state, going “Full Grassley,” shaking hands, kissing babies, and fighting desperately for the first in the nation state, to prove that Trump is really nothing but hot air, and that Cruz has a pin to pop that bubble.
Marco Rubio polls in third, while not having much support in the rural areas in the state. However, he recently received a huge endorsement from the Des Moines Register. Rubio has been doing well in the debates, but questions remain as to how conservative he is, and he has not yet surged to Trump-Cruz heights. If he does well in Iowa, he might be able to continue on, but he is a man with a struggling campaign.
Future former presidential candidate Ben Carson is there…and that’s about it.
Rand Paul continues to promise a surge in the state, and his people certainly are devoted. While he is polling in fifth, it would not be the most shocking thing in history if he were to pull into third.
But for contenders, there is where the story ends. No one has ever won the Republican Nomination who did not come in the top three in Iowa, and no other candidates really have a chance to win. Unless something happens in the next week, the above lineup, (minus Dr. Carson, really) is the final scorecard of contenders for the nomination. Expect some people to start dropping out soon after the first of February.
On the Democratic side, Martin O’Malley won’t win Iowa. That’s done with.
Now for Secretary Clinton and Senator Sanders, it’s all up in the air.
The establishment of both parties, reports indicate, are dying a horrible death of unnatural causes. However, Hillary is trying to keep the Democratic big-boys around for one more cycle. Sanders is determined to prove that any little boy or insane old man can grow up to be president.
It’s here at last. Real votes will soon be cast. The election is almost upon us. Hang in there, there is an end to this tunnel.
I think.
Andrew C. Abbott

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