Atlanta, GA – On the night of the Iowa Caucuses, of several things I posted on Facebook that night, the most popular was when, with seventy percent of the Republican votes counted, I used some back of the envelope math to project that Cruz was the sure winner of the state. I was suddenly a very popular person in Camp Cruz, getting PMs and text messages telling me great job.
Tonight however, I expect no such congratulations from the Cruzites. For, this evening, when the votes are counted in New Hampshire, unless Jurassic World is real and elves still roam the woods, Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders will win their respective fights.
While no polls currently give any hope to John Kasich, Ted Cruz, or Marco Rubio of pulling in first, the question of the night will be how much will Hillary Clinton lose by, and who, on the GOP side, will be second dog in the Granite State.
With snow storms brewing across the state, there is a possibility that those will help Cruz, who is currently tied with Kasich and Trump in votes cast so far today.
Rubio comes into this contest staggering after his awful CBS debate, where he vied with David Muir and Mary Katharine Ham for the worst performance of the night. It remains to be seen however if people in New Hampshire care all that much. Remember when Cruz lost the pre-Iowa debate and how much that hurt him.
I’m not sure what Kasich is trying to prove here, by staying the race. He didn’t do well enough in Iowa to even make the leader board, and he is in sixth place nationally. Perhaps he suffers from the age-old issue of not wanting to quit and spend the rest of his life wondering “what if?”
For all the diehard Cruz fans who remain convinced he can win, I’m not with you, but I’ll lay out a rag of hope. According to the New York Times, as of this morning 23% of likely voters remain undecided as to where to cast their votes. If the snow hurts Trump and Rubio, and if the polls have underestimated Cruz, and if all of those undecided voters swing over to the Texas Senator, he could pull out a win in the first in the nation primary. I don’t think it’s possible, but, hey, stranger things have happened.
Andrew C. Abbott