Atlanta, GA – On the night of the Iowa Caucuses, of several
things I posted on Facebook that night, the most popular was when, with seventy
percent of the Republican votes counted, I used some back of the envelope math
to project that Cruz was the sure winner of the state. I was suddenly a very
popular person in Camp Cruz, getting PMs and text messages telling me great
job.
Tonight however, I expect no such congratulations from the
Cruzites. For, this evening, when the votes are counted in New Hampshire,
unless Jurassic World is real and elves still roam the woods, Donald Trump and
Bernie Sanders will win their respective fights.
While no polls currently give any hope to John Kasich, Ted
Cruz, or Marco Rubio of pulling in first, the question of the night will be how
much will Hillary Clinton lose by, and who, on the GOP side, will be second dog
in the Granite State.
With snow storms brewing across the state, there is a
possibility that those will help Cruz, who is currently tied with Kasich and
Trump in votes cast so far today.
Rubio comes into this contest staggering after his awful CBS
debate, where he vied with David Muir and Mary Katharine Ham for the worst
performance of the night. It remains to be seen however if people in New
Hampshire care all that much. Remember when Cruz lost the pre-Iowa debate and
how much that hurt him.
I’m not sure what Kasich is trying to prove here, by staying
the race. He didn’t do well enough in Iowa to even make the leader board, and
he is in sixth place nationally. Perhaps he suffers from the age-old issue of
not wanting to quit and spend the rest of his life wondering “what if?”
For all the diehard Cruz fans who remain convinced he can
win, I’m not with you, but I’ll lay out a rag of hope. According to the New York Times, as of this morning 23%
of likely voters remain undecided as to where to cast their votes. If the snow
hurts Trump and Rubio, and if the polls have underestimated Cruz, and if all of those undecided voters swing over to the Texas Senator, he
could pull out a win in the first in the nation primary. I don’t think it’s
possible, but, hey, stranger things have happened.
Andrew C. Abbott
Well them. A day after the NH Caucus, and this article reads really stupid. By the by, the last GOP debate was on ABC, not CBS.
ReplyDeleteIf you get the little details wrong, not surprising you get the big things wrong too.
Congrats to Gov. Kasich, btw.
There is no honor in hiding your name. As Charlie Brown said, only the cowardly or uninformed do not sign their names. Andrew C. Abbott.
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